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Janet Yellen Believes a Recession Is Coming—But No Need to Panic Yet

Posted on Nov 27 2019 - 9:56pm by Lance Edwards

Housing leaders are bracing for the next recession. Janet Yellen offers her insights on when it might happen and how they can prepare.

 

By Forbes  (MultiFamilyExecutive.com Article

Janet Yellen, chair, board of governers, Federal Reserve SystemPhoto courtesy of World Business Forum

Do you generally feel that the last recession wasn’t long ago or it’s a long-forgotten nightmare? Regardless, construction is very cyclical and there will always be a down when there is an up. This article from Forbes discusses how to prepare and make your organization more recession-proof, whenever it might strike.

The most frequent question in housing economics these days centers around forecasting the exact moment in time when the tidal wave of the next recession will crash, hammering all of current prosperity to pieces. Most builders and developers aren’t holding their breath in anticipation but feverishly working while the going is good.

Robert Dietz, chief economist at NAHB, is sharing reports that the three-month moving average of single family starts is at a post-recession high. Dietz is fairly confident that there will be time before the next housing recession. He recently told Professional Builder that: “Our forecast window goes through the end of 2021, and we don’t have a full-blown recession on our forecast tables right now.”

Ali Wolf, director of economic research at Meyers Research also weighs in: “Earlier this year, indications of an imminent recession were popping up in economic data left and right. We still see reason for concern in todays’ economy, namely lower confidence and growth in trade-related sectors, but risks have subsided.”

Despite the fact that the state of the U.S. economy is excellent and we are in the midst of the longest recorded expansion in history and the strongest market since 1968, Janet Yellen, the chair of the board of governors at the Federal Reserve System, is still uncomfortable. She doesn’t believe there will be a recession in the coming year, but says that the odds are higher than normal.

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